SWODY2
SPC AC 060553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT DECELERATES/STALLS AND GRADUALLY
ELONGATES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIALLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN...POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTH TX BY TUESDAY...WILL ALSO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.
...SOUTH TX...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO TUESDAY REGARDING CURRENT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS. WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPEARING PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...IT SEEMS THAT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX/PERHAPS HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED PROBABILITIES FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK...AS A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG RIGHT-SIDE
PERIPHERAL WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITHIN A MOIST
AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH A NARROW/MODESTLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE MEAGER WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...MAINLY TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET.
..GUYER.. 09/06/2010
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