SWODY3
SPC AC 060730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...TX/OK...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SPECIFIC
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. REFERENCE NHC
FORECASTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. BASED ON THE CURRENT
NHC FORECAST AND 00Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE...THE INLAND/NORTHWARD
MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS TX MAY HAVE A SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL
RIGHT-PERIPHERAL WIND ENVELOPE FOR SOME TORNADO/PERHAPS DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE
CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL VARIABILITY EXISTS...SUCH A THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK
AND WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.
...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
AS A BROAD WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH A SUFFICIENT PWAT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
REGION TO YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SOME
SUSTAINED STRONG/PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WARM FRONT/ATTENDANT MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
CONSIDERABLE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...00Z BASED NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL
INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FROM
THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE TO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME NORTH OF THE CONTINUALLY RETREATING WARM
FRONT...TSTMS SHOULD ESPECIALLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING EASTERN MT/THE
DAKOTAS...TO THE ADJACENT UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE A PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED/CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS.
...NEW ENGLAND...
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHEAST STATES. PENDING A SOMEWHAT SLOWER OFFSHORE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A DAYTIME
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT /MAINLY WIND/ COULD MATERIALIZE MAINLY ACROSS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...BUT THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..GUYER.. 09/06/2010
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