SWODY2
SPC AC 051719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...
...AZ/GREAT BASIN...
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF AZ WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW OVER CA
WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD EJECT QUICKLY NWD ACROSS AZ TOWARD THE UT BORDER BY
07/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND
NEUTRAL/SUBSIDENT VERTICAL MOTION COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF AZ AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND
DRIES. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S. PRIOR TO VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN LINGER BEFORE THE
TROUGH LIFTS INTO UT A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS.
WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS NV/UT WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..DARROW.. 10/05/2010
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