SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051744
AZZ000-052015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051744Z - 052015Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NWRN AZ SWD
ACROSS W CNTRL AZ NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE GULF MOISTURE. MAINLY
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
HEATING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY/OUTFLOW. SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH ONLY MODERATE
LAPSE RATES PROFILES. ALTHOUGH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
EXIST...LOW LEVEL VEERING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-45
KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH A
FEW STONES TO AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO COULD OCCUR.
..JEWELL.. 10/05/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31961319 33201304 34121302 34571290 34971246 35051186
34951137 34391077 33811026 32891057 32081085 31391130
31961319
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