SWODY3
SPC AC 120703
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ERN STATES
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES DROPS SEWD INTO THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION. THIS VORT MAX WILL INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
NC COAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD ADVANCING IMPULSE AND USHER IN A
REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIR.
...ERN NC...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS NC. WITH DEWPOINTS FROM
50S-LOW 60S F IN WARM SECTOR...AT LEAST MARGINAL SBCAPE SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER ERN
NC...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LIKELY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..DIAL.. 10/12/2010
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