SWOD48
SPC AC 120754
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
PATTERN DAY 4-5 WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
DAY 6 DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. ERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ BY DAY 6 WITH A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND DAY 6 ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING
INTO THE WRN STATES. PREDICTABILITY BEYOND DAY 6 REMAINS LOW DUE TO
EXPECTED HIGHLY TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND DISPERSIVE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
..DIAL.. 10/12/2010
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