SWODY1
SPC AC 270518
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC MAY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGHING ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL STATES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST.
WITHIN THIS LATTER FEATURE...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPEARS
LIKELY TO DIG INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL
COOLING /WITH A 500 MB COLD CORE BELOW -30C/...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTS...INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE EVOLVING PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH GENERALLY NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EVEN ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A
RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
INLAND AREAS...IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
..KERR.. 11/27/2010
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