MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

ACUS11 KWNS 270516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270516
NYZ000-270915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N-CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 270516Z - 270915Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPING WITHIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS NEAR THE ERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR ARE
EXPECTED.

CURRENT SFC OBS/VWP DATA REVEAL STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...TO THE S OF AN UPPER CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH
ERN CANADA. LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ERN SHORES...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED SNOWBANDS
EVIDENT ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AS A POOL OF COLDER MID-LEVEL
TEMPS /-18 TO -20 C AT 700 MB/ POSITIONED UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT INTO
THE REGION. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE WIND FIELDS WILL VEER 10-20 DEG BY 12Z...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
A SLIGHT REPOSITIONING OF THE SNOWBANDS TO THE S.

..ROGERS.. 11/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42637781 42457842 42557897 42787912 43127826 43447752
44317566 44337483 43957448 42827700 42637781

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