SWODY3
SPC AC 090824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. MEANWHILE... AS
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING REMAINS SLOW TO WEAKEN...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...IN SOMEWHAT PIECE MEAL FASHION.
ONE OR TWO INCREASINGLY SHEARED IMPULSES MAY ACCELERATE NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHILE A PERHAPS MUCH STRONGER
REMNANT IMPULSE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ALONG
A SLOW MOVING OR STALLED SURFACE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN MAY INCREASE OFF A
PARTIALLY MODIFIED WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE
STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY. FURTHERMORE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT... ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WILL PROBABLY ONLY REACH A FEW HUNDRED TO PERHAPS 500 J/KG.
WITH FORCING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS WEAK OR
UNCLEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
..KERR.. 11/09/2010
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