SWOD48
SPC AC 090947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2010
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FORMATION
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE/HIGH CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... WITH
BROADER SCALE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION. AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEFORE STALLING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A
POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BROADER SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THESE
DEVELOPMENTS REMAINS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BARRING STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW.
..KERR.. 11/09/2010
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