SWODY3
SPC AC 270815
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND ENTERING THE PLAINS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY 30/12Z. AS
THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME. WHILE MODELS DIFFER FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE DEGREE OF EWD FRONTAL PROGRESS WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CROSS THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WHILE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES RAISE QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DEGREE AND LOCATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL NONETHELESS INTRODUCE
5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FOR
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS NWD AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT. WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STILL PROGGED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND LATEST SREF RUN TO REACH COASTAL AREAS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
BE AVAILABLE. THUS...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE
FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THIS
COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
LIMITED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.
..GOSS.. 11/27/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment