SWOD48
SPC AC 270931
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2010
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 4 /TUE 11-30/...AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH LIKEWISE CROSSES THIS REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY THE START OF DAY 5...AND THEN
CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND S
FL THROUGH THE DAY 5 PERIOD.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WRN
CONUS DAY 6...WITH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING ANY FORECAST FOR
CONVECTIVE WEATHER FROM DAY 6 ONWARD.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DAY 4 SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ASSOCIATED ZONE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED...STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE THREAT -- THOUGH NOT
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 11/27/2010
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