SWODY3
SPC AC 280816
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE
ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/SRN APPALACHIANS/GULF COAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND ATLANTIC COAST
STATES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...SERN U.S. INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO
BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT EXPECT CAPE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES EWD WITH TIME.
DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAIRLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. THUS...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW-PROBABILITY
THREAT AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE PERIOD...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THUS -- DESPITE EVEN MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY EXTEND AS FAR
NEWD AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
..GOSS.. 11/28/2010
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