SWOD48
SPC AC 080945
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST MON NOV 08 2010
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
ANY RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD LIKELY WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS STILL SEEMS A POSSIBILITY...TRENDS IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS IS PROBABLY
UNLIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIVE
DESTABILIZATION. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN EVOLVING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE U.S. GROW QUITE LARGE. BUT IT MAY BE THAT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY /LOW
POTENTIAL/ RATHER THAN /PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW/.
..KERR.. 11/08/2010
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