SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080951
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-NYZ000-081445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON NOV 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VT/WRN MA/CT/WRN RI
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 080951Z - 081445Z
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EMBEDDED SNOWFALL RATES...AT TIMES...UP TO 1
IN/HR THROUGH 12Z ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MA...CT TO WRN RI. FARTHER N
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL VT...AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...WITH SOME HIGHER SLEET RATES POSSIBLE. AFTER
12Z...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WAA REACHING WWD INTO VT SUGGESTS AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 15Z IN LOCATIONS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN BELOW 32 F.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FURTHER DEEPENING EXPECTED
OF A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PER RUC SUGGESTED
70-80 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS MOVING INTO THE NRN QUADRANT OF THE CLOSED
LOW. COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OFF THE SRN
ME COAST TO SRN NH ARE INDICATIVE OF INCREASING UVVS SPREADING WWD
WITHIN THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET. UVVS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM VT TO CT/RI THROUGH 12-15Z AS FURTHER DEEPENING OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM OCCURS AND THE MIDLEVEL JET ROTATES INTO THE
NWRN-WRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
THE MORE DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FORECAST INVOLVES THE LOWER LEVEL/
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL STRATIFICATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 12-15Z. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
INDICATED A MIXTURE OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW AS WAS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE EXISTING DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER PER 00Z SOUNDINGS
AND CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES AOA 32 F. STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME IS EXPECTED INTO VT AFTER 12Z WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...
WHILE WEAKER WAA FURTHER S SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY SLEET WITH
EMBEDDED HIGHER SLEET/SNOW RATES POSSIBLE.
..PETERS.. 11/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 44317203 43417246 42857253 42267242 41887169 41487174
41427254 41617350 42247343 43367336 43707326 44287296
44317203
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment