MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2046

ACUS11 KWNS 160848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160847
FLZ000-161115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160847Z - 161115Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...PRIMARILY AFTER 10-11Z OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
WWD AND INTERSECTS A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH OF GULF SHORES SWWD TO JUST OFF SERN TIP OF LA. ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NWD
THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO AL AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
70F DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF E-W BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND IS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA. REMAINING PORTIONS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE INLAND UNTIL AFTER 11Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WHERE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES
ONSHORE. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ONLY LIMITED INLAND
PROGRESS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN
SMALL.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 30118348 30058436 29738509 30168565 30498617 30838606
30858543 30658468 30578344 30118348

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.