SWODY1
SPC AC 080500
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT
EWD ALLOWING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER AZ TO ADVANCE INTO
TX SATURDAY NIGHT. POLAR FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SERN STATES WWD
INTO S CNTRL TX WILL MOVE FARTHER SWD TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
ACROSS S TX AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND SFC WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NRN
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. THE LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS DEEP S TX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
...SRN TX...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR HAS BEGUN RETURNING THROUGH S TX...AND
LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY CHARACTERIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR TODAY. THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED ABOVE THE
POLAR FRONT AND BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL TX. WEAK SBCAPE
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESTABILIZATION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
POLAR FRONT TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
OVER DEEP S TX WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG EWD
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE DEEP S TX WARM SECTOR...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...BUT THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/08/2011
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