SWODY2
SPC AC 080503
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LARGE DEEP CYCLONE...NOW
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
IN ITS WAKE...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN INITIAL COLD SURFACE RIDGE...FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY AND
RETREAT EASTWARD...EVEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS
EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LEAD IMPULSE TRANSLATES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/ SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. BUT
IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MOSTLY FOCUSED TO THE COOL SIDE OF A
WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GULF
COAST. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR...IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
LOW. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
PARISHES...THOUGH...THE PROBABILITY THAT THIS WILL IMPACT AREAS
INLAND OF THE GULF COAST APPEARS LOW.
..KERR.. 01/08/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment