SWODY1
SPC AC 090545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO S TX AT 12Z TODAY WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRACKS NEWD AND JUST INLAND OF THE UPPER TX/LA
COASTS INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
MOVES INTO SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE SERN STATES. THE SRN
EXTENT OF A SURFACE RIDGE...INITIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE SERN
STATES...WILL SHIFT E TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN ELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
THE NRN-NERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE S TX SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AT 12Z TODAY...
WITH THIS LOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ENEWD...
REACHING THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z MONDAY.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
THE ELY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL LIMIT THE INTRUSION
OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS /LOWER-MID 60S/ TO FAR SERN PART OF LA
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MAY TRACK THROUGH OR JUST OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE 03Z WRF-HRRR AND 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/
WRF-NSSL ALL SUGGEST THE AREA OF TSTMS/MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY INLAND OF THE MIDDLE/S TX COAST SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST FAR SERN LA WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS THE
NRN EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX GLANCES THAT AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK HAS
MAINTAINED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES /2% TORNADO AND 5% THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/ ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /EXCEEDING 45 KT/ AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
INVOF A STRONG LLJ TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF/ADJACENT
LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY BE LOCATED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SERN LA COAST AT BEST.
..PETERS/DEAN.. 01/09/2011
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