SWODY2
SPC AC 090547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2011
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY TODAY...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN...AS A STRONG CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER JET EMERGES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NOSES ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...AS ANOTHER LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST IS STILL
PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS... COUPLED WITH AN
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZED BY RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY... SUGGESTS LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
...SOUTHEAST...
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
AS MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN A LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN/SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...UP THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THROUGH THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MIXED LAYER CAPE
MAY ONLY APPROACH 500 J/KG OR SO...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONTAL WAVE REDEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS.
..KERR.. 01/09/2011
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