SWODY2
SPC AC 160809
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER GRAPHIC
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND CORRESPONDING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
WRN THIRD. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN
MEXICO AND EXTREME S TX WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR NEWD IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD INTO WRN TX. LATTER IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AREA BEFORE REACHING FL MONDAY.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE.
...SRN HALF OF FL PENINSULA...
INITIAL WEAKER IMPULSE WILL EJECT THROUGH COOL SECTOR OVER NRN FL
EARLY MONDAY WITH ATTENDANT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION. WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD THROUGH SRN FL AS ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD AND SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN FL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MUCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AOB 500 J/KG DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS MAY
ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SURFACE
BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR WHERE MODEST DIABATIC
WARMING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT /50 KT AT 500 MB/ ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM
FRONT. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 01/16/2011
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