SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271844
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / NWRN MS / WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL / FAR WRN
KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271844Z - 272015Z
NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL BE MONITORING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE
OVER NERN AR AND WRN TN AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES.
IF/ONCE UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AN ENSUING
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS ERN AR EWD INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN LEADING TO POCKETS
OF INCREASED HEATING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY
NEAR AND S OF I-40 ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITHIN A MOIST PLUME EXTENDING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IN TURN IS RESULTING IN 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND A WEAKENED
CAP. REPEATED CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS INVOF THE MS/AR/TN BORDER MAY
EVENTUALLY BREACH THE REMAINING CAP AND LEADING TO ISOLD-SCTD STORMS
BY MID AFTERNOON. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED
SHALLOW CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN BY 20Z.
IF/ONCE THIS OCCURS...SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PER NQA VAD DATA /30 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR/ WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
..SMITH.. 02/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34709075 35179109 36728938 36678844 36298803 35578804
34578999 34709075
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