SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271846
MOZ000-KSZ000-271945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KS...WCNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271846Z - 271945Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS SCNTRL KS JUST
NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SFC FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ROOTED NEAR 850MB WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH...OR EVEN EXCEED 1500
J/KG. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SFC LOW WILL
TRANSLATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO SWRN MO LATE THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSURE UPWARD
EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF WIND
SHIFT AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH A TORNADO WATCH AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..DARROW.. 02/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38229855 39809396 39509251 38729310 37929554 37029840
38229855
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