SWODY1
SPC AC 051230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN/CNTRL PLNS UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD
AS EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN NEB AMPLIFIES SEWD.
THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE TN VLY BY 12Z FRI...RESULTING IN
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED LARGER SCALE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM LK
SUPERIOR TO MIDDLE TN.
AT THE SFC...WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA
TO CNTRL KS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
...MID/NRN OZARKS...
FAIRLY STRONG UVV/DCVA WILL PRECEDE AMPLIFYING...PROGRESSIVE UPR
IMPULSE OVER THE MID MS VLY AND THE NRN OZARKS LATER TODAY. 500 MB
TEMPS WILL COOL TO AOB MINUS 20C ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF IL/IA BY MID/LATE AFTN AS 70+ KT JET STREAK REACHES NE
OK/NW AR.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED...WITH PW AROUND .75 INCH AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CONSIDERABLE SFC
HEATING...SBCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG FROM FAR ERN KS
INTO WRN/SRN MO.
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM ERN
KS/SE NEB EWD INTO MUCH OF IA...MO...AND WRN IL BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT/TROUGH
OVER CNTRL/SW MO...WHERE THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BAND. BUT
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY WILL ALSO PERSIST IN POST-FRONTAL
CYCLONIC FLOW NWWD INTO ERN KS/SE NEB. ISOLD STORMS MAY OCCUR NWD
INTO PARTS OF MN AND WI.
DESPITE WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE...COOL MID LVL TEMPS
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL IN A FEW STORMS FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY OVER SW MO AND PERHAPS FAR NRN AR. MANY OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALLER HAIL.
...S FL...
RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER S FL...ALONG AND S OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WEAK ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3KM SUGGESTS THAT
THE STRONGEST SEA BREEZE-INDUCED UPLIFT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SW
CST. WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
DEGREE/DURATION OF ANY SVR WIND THREAT POSED BY EXPECTED AFTN PULSE
STORMS IN THE REGION.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 05/05/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment