SWOD48
SPC AC 050900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FORECAST MODELS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN/D4 IN DIGGING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WRN STATES...AND MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS EWD TO THE MS RIVER BY 00Z MON. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND SLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
BRING MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO OK AND SRN KS
E OF A DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING AND MIXING W OF THE DRYLINE BENEATH
WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS AND A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH
T/TD SPREADS MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE GREATER WITH EWD
EXTENT...CAPPING WILL BE A PROBLEM. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
SLOW...SO EXPECT STORMS TO AFFECT A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA
BEFORE DYING BY LATE EVENING.
ON MON/D5...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN AS THE TROUGH SINKS SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LOW PRESSURE
WILL AGAIN DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW
PERSISTING. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT APPEARS MORE DRYLINE STORMS
WILL OCCUR...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
BY TUE/D6 INTO WED/D7...FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS AND BEGINS
MOVING EWD. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NWD AND PHASE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WIND PROFILES. ALL THE WHILE...A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS EACH DAY. TUE AND WED APPEAR TO HAVE A
GREATER TORNADO THREAT THAN ON SUN/MON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND
BETTER HODOGRAPHS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ON TUE WHEN A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.
GIVEN SOME SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH ON D7...WILL
DEFER ON ADDING ANY ADDITIONAL AREAS.
..JEWELL.. 05/05/2011
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