Tuesday, May 24, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241654
SWODY2
SPC AC 241653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO/AR NORTHEAST INTO
INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ACROSS
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM
MO/AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATE DAY1 EARLY DAY2 PERIOD WHERE DEEPENING IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SFC CYCLONE
WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW BY
25/12Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE A BROAD WARM SECTOR TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 70S SFC DEW
POINTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR/WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN
INSTIGATOR FOR PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER KS/MO AND WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EPISODIC SEVERE CLUSTERS
DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE E-W
BOUNDARY RETREATS TOWARD LOWER MI. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE
THE WARM BUOYANT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MO/AR INTO NRN
LA AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL ENABLE
THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE NEWD DURING THE DAY AND WILL AID DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S...THOUGH
TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO AT SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS INITIAL
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSE UPDRAFTS/ROTATION THAT
SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT
STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. AS
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

DOWNSTREAM...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN VA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND POSE AT LEAST A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DARROW.. 05/24/2011

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