SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241655
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-241800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...NRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...
VALID 241655Z - 241800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352
CONTINUES.
VALID PORTION OF WW 352 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. WITH SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING...THE PROBABILITY OF A WW REPLACEMENT IS 80
PERCENT.
A RECENT INCREASE IN REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL KY INTO FAR NRN MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL WARM
THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP A WEST-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...COUPLED WITH AN MCV OVER WRN KY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN
TN WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
REACHING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STRONG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLY
LOW/MID-LEVEL PROFILES SAMPLED IN AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY...OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY DEVELOP
WITH A BRIEF TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36398701 36908650 37248529 37338337 37328266 36518217
36238228 35998266 35888415 35898652 36148701 36398701
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