SWODY2
SPC AC 061729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN
GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...PA
AND SRN NY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
TRAILING PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CA IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER GREAT BASIN
TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAND OF FASTER
MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW....ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST.
...ND EAST ACROSS NRN MN/WI...
WHILE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH WILL HANG BACK NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER AREA THROUGH THE DAY...A
TRIPLE POINT LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM TO THE EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE ACROSS THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITH HEATING
OF THE DAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIVE CONVECTION NEARER THE OCCLUDED LOW AND
FRONT...ACROSS ND...DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
WITH TIME...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM ERN ND ACROSS NRN MN...SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO
IF STORMS CAN TRULY ROOT INTO BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT. WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR FORECAST TO EXPAND NWD WITH
TIME...THE AREA OF GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT INTO
SRN CANADA WITH TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND STORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WHILE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI. GIVEN PERSISTENT MASS INFLOW AND LIFT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AN
MCS OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND SPREAD FROM WI TO MI THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
...UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN TIER NY...
DECAYING MCS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES TO UPPER
OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND STRONG
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD SUPPORT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM OH/NRN WV TO SRN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZES MAY FURTHER ACT TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH MODEST 10-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A SCATTERING OF
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...LIKELY DIMINISHING WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.
...GULF COAST...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN LIKELY IN HOT AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM THE
WRN FL PNHDL WWD TO SOUTHEAST TX. RESIDUAL FRONT AND GULF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL ACT TO FOCUS THIS PULSE CONVECTION WHERE WET
DOWNBURST/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE GREATEST BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 4PM AND 6PM LOCAL TIME.
..CARBIN.. 06/06/2011
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