SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061748
FLZ000-GAZ000-061845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N FL / FAR SERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061748Z - 061845Z
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL PROBABLY FEATURE WET
MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE DUE TO STRONG TO
LOWER-END SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY CYCLONIC CONVERGENT AREA DUE TO
BOTH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SPREADING INLAND AND BACKGROUND AMBIENT
LOW LEVEL ENELY FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA IS LOCATED WHERE BUILDING TCU/STORMS
ARE BLOSSOMING OVER THE PAST HR OR SO. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID 90S AMIDST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ESSENTIALLY
NO CINH REMAINING. MODIFYING THE 12Z JAX RAOB FOR CURRENT
TEMP/DEWPOINT INDICATES THAT MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH WEAK SHEAR EXISTS...A MOIST PROFILE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCH/
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WATER LOADING IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES---SUPPORTIVE OF WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF
SPORADIC POCKETS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THAT WILL
LEAD TO ISOLD WIND DAMAGE.
..SMITH.. 06/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29508254 30218354 30768298 31208234 31128169 30568145
29988144 29608137 29308199 29508254
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