SWODY1
SPC AC 130551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LINGERS INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...A
MUCH LARGER/STRONGER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ERN CANADA AND THE LOWER LAKES AND MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE FRONT PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS MO/KS INTO AR/OK.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE SWRN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...THE NORTHEAST AND OH VALLEY REGION...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST/ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A FEW STRONGER CELLS OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND INTO MO MAY ACQUIRE SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION -- AND THUS
BECOME CAPABLE OF MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION...FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION.
FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NY...STRONGER UPPER FLOW
FIELD IS FORECAST -- PROMOTING BOTH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION AND FASTER STORM MOVEMENT. WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO SMALL LINES OF CELLS...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL HAIL. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
...DESERT SW...
PERSISTENT COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL AGAIN
AID IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WEST...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO ACROSS WRN AZ AND
VICINITY -- AIDED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS IN THIS
PORTION OF THE REGION -- MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/13/2011
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