SWODY2
SPC AC 130600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY/TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED/INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WHILE THIS SAME FRONT
OTHERWISE GENERALLY SETTLES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CONUS. FARTHER WEST...WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES UPPER SPLIT FLOW REGIME...THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY /ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY/ THE
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT /AND ASSOCIATED POST-FRONTAL HIGH PLAINS
UPSLOPE REGIME/ ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NM AND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES. COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT...WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MODESTLY STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR OWING TO
THE INITIAL INFLUENCES OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH. IT IS
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...BUT
STRONG HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR
OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG SBCAPE/...ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY YIELD ISOLATED/EPISODIC SEVERE
WIND AND/OR HAIL WITH THE MORE ROBUST/SUSTAINED STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING FRONT...WITH INFLUENCES OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF A POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE AND A POTENTIAL SPEED MAX ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH.
NEAR/IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNALLY-AIDED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL PRIMARILY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
IS LIKELY TO RESIDE IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DPVA/LARGE
SCALE INFLUENCES OF THE EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...SUCH
THAT THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT
IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS...OWING TO MODEST NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES/AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT
LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...A POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /SBCAPE 1000-2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND ADEQUATE NEAR-FRONTAL VERTICAL SHEAR MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL.
..GUYER.. 09/13/2011
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