Saturday, September 10, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101148
SWODY1
SPC AC 101147

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/MS VALLEY REGION WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY SEWD AS IT BEGINS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE POLAR JET OVER ONTARIO.
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS/NE OK NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY.

A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PW VALUES OF 1-1.25 INCHES AND ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SRN CA LOW WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM INTERIOR SRN CA TO SRN NV AND AZ.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE IN
CA...AND ALONG/S OF THE RIM IN AZ.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/10/2011

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