Saturday, September 10, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100857
SWOD48
SPC AC 100857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION DISCUSSED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK WILL PIVOT NEWD
ACROSS ERN CANADA DAY-4/13TH-14TH...FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY
AT LEAST TWO OTHER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ENCIRCLING
HUDSON BAY-AREA GYRE. PRIMARY/ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL CROSS ERN
ONT AND WRN/NERN QUE. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF TRAILING COLD FRONT
DAY-4 AS BOUNDARY IMPINGES ON RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
INTERIOR MID-ATLC AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE OVER CANADA...SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT EVENTUAL SLGT RISK FOR SVR...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES
ON BUOYANCY...TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING PRECLUDE
30%-LEVEL LINE ATTM. THEREAFTER...FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD AWAY FROM
STRONGEST MID-UPPER FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE PATTERN.

..EDWARDS.. 09/10/2011

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