MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2154

ACUS11 KWNS 102142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102141
NMZ000-AZZ000-110015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 102141Z - 110015Z

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL TO
AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING FROM PARTS OF
NRN AZ INTO WRN SECTIONS OF NM. A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD EXISTS ON THE ERN
FLANK OF LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE LOW...COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SCATTERED ROBUST CONVECTION IN AN ARC FROM NW YAVAPAI COUNTY IN AZ
TO ERN CATRON AND MCKINLEY COUNTIES IN WRN NM. MOISTENING IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM PER
LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA WERE SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 800-1100 J/KG ACROSS
THESES AREAS. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NLY/NELY SURFACE LOW TOPPED BY THE
SW FLOW ALOFT...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A KINEMATIC
REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FROM A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS. SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT FROM LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES HAIL SIZE OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE CORES. LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PRECLUDE MUCH OF A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SPARSE NATURE OF THE LARGE HAIL
THREAT...SUGGEST THAT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

..CARBIN.. 09/10/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...VEF...

LAT...LON 33870849 34591036 35011225 34901303 35311335 36131213
36411067 36390921 35490737 34450711 33870849

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