SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102153
FLZ000-102330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102153Z - 102330Z
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
LATE AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A FEW FEATURES OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL/SOUTH FL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS:
1. THE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT/STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE -- MARKING A PRONOUNCED SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT -- DRAPED
FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO SW OF OCALA...
2. A SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AXIS LYING FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA
AND FARTHER SW INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE ERN GULF...EVIDENT IN
THE MOTION OF CLOUD ELEMENTS PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...
3. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY /AROUND 1.5-KM DEEP PER MIAMI
VWP DATA/ EXTENDING FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO THE ERN PARTS OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO WELL WSW OF MIAMI...AND
4. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ENE OF SARASOTA
TO ENE OF FORT MYERS TO WELL WSW OF MIAMI.
AS THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE
PROPAGATING INLAND...THE MAINTENANCE OF SFC CONVERGENCE AMIDST
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE REGENERATIVE CONVECTION
OVER PRIMARILY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE AUGMENTED INVOF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS...WHERE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 11
KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR PER MIAMI VWP...PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE MODE. MODESTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INVOF THE
REMNANT FRONT COULD PROMOTE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH
IN CNTRL FL. WITH PW VALUES OF 1.90-2.25 INCHES PER GPS
DATA...WATER-LOADING PROCESSES COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS
STORMS COLLAPSE. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN WEAKENING BY 00Z AS DIABATIC COOLING COMMENCES.
..COHEN.. 09/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29328112 27758039 26048008 25298040 25298110 26608192
27628243 28848254 29378199 29328112
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