SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131922
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-132045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE...NRN NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131922Z - 132045Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MAINE AND NRN NH AS STORMS
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MAINE AND NH WHERE AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN SRN QUEBEC IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF SFC TROUGH AND ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN QUEBEC WITH A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMA ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HELP THE
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO WRN MAINE AND
NRN NH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON SUGGEST 0-6 KM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT
AS THE STRUCTURE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MCD
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
LINEAR ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND
DAMAGE WITH SHORT BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS TIMED
INTO WRN MAINE AROUND 22Z SUGGESTING A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE THAT
TIME.
..BROYLES.. 09/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 47396824 47426874 47026959 46357005 45717056 45377113
44937145 44407170 44077160 44007110 44716973 46056828
46976778 47396824
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