SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131929
AZZ000-CAZ000-132030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND GILA RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131929Z - 132030Z
THE THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUST MAY
INCREASE INVOF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE GILA AND COLORADO RIVERS IN FAR
SWRN AZ AND FAR SERN CA NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER.
RECENT KYUX RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A FEW DEVELOPING STORMS
ACQUIRING MIDLEVEL ROTATION S OF THE BORDER NEAR NRN TIP OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVER RIVERSIDE COUNTY CA WILL LIKELY ACT TO LIMIT THE AREAL
NWD EXTENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO BE S OF THE BORDER. THE 18Z
1Y7 /YUMA/ RAOB FEATURES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOIST MID-LEVELS WITH
35 KTS H5 FLOW--SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH THE
UPPER LOW/VORT MAX LOCATED TO THE W ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE GRADUAL
EWD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ACT TO PROMOTE A MODEST SEVERE
RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..SMITH.. 09/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PSR...
LAT...LON 32631499 32951475 32981422 32691349 32111334 31981350
32381487 32631499
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