SWODY3
SPC AC 040724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE TX PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA EJECT NEWD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NRN
PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAPED SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...NRN PLAINS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NWD AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BY
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE CURRENT D2 OUTLOOK...THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH SUBSTANTIALLY RICHER MOISTURE
RETURNING THAN THE NAM/ECMWF AND NON-SPECTRAL MEMBERS OF THE SREF.
CONSENSUS OF THE FAVORED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NRN PLAINS TO MIDDLE 50S
IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 07/00Z...WITHIN A LONGITUDINALLY CONFINED
AXIS GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
SRN/ERN CONUS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
ALTHOUGH FORCING MAY REMAIN WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL TO SRN HIGH
PLAINS OWING TO EJECTING LEAD IMPULSES PRIMARILY TRACKING N/NEWD
FROM THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODEST BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 500 MB S/SWLYS STRENGTHENING TO AOA
50-60 KT AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGING DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
IN THE NRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD INCREASE...MAINLY THU
EVENING/NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY COMPENSATE TO SOME EXTENT FOR THE
LACK OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATIVE TO FARTHER S. THESE LATTER FACTORS WILL
MITIGATE A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE ATTM.
..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/04/2011
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