SWOD48
SPC AC 040826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS TROUGH WILL
EVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ON FRI...ONE EJECTING
RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE OTHER
ANCHORING BACK NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE...THIS TYPE OF
EVOLUTION DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN GENERALLY WEAKENING
KINEMATIC AND FORCING FIELDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED TO SOME EXTENT BY A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAY EFFECTIVELY
MAINTAIN A LOW-END SEVERE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON FRI. BEYOND THIS TIME
FRAME...PREDICTABILITY WANES WITH LARGE SPREAD OVER THE SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION OF THE IMPULSE HANGING BACK NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/04/2011
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