SWODY1
SPC AC 181239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ONE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW AND NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND N OF THE STALLED
FRONT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF POOR
LAPSE RATES AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.
A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC NW COAST. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AOB
-35 C AT 500 MB/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE COAST
TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SWATH OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...THOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO
COULD ALSO OCCUR INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE/ID THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY.
..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 11/18/2011
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