SWOD48
SPC AC 180955
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ALEUTIANS...DISCUSSED IN DAY-3
OUTLOOK...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS AZ/NWRN MEX EARLY
DAY-4...ROUGHLY 21/12Z-21/18Z TIME FRAME. DESPITE SOME
STRENGTH/TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...PROGS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MID-LATE DAY-4. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NM AND CHIHUAHUA AROUND
22/00Z THEN EXTEND FROM OK TO FAR W TX BY 22/12Z. RESULTANT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS FCST ALONG STALLED FRONT...MOVING NEWD OVER
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS SERN OK. RETURN OF MID-60S SFC DEW
POINTS BENEATH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR CONCENTRATION OF SVR NEAR THAT FRONT AND CYCLONE TRACK. SVR
AREA IS KEPT...BUT SHIFTED EWD IN DEFERENCE TO FASTER CONSENSUS
TIMING OF FEATURES COMPARED TO PRIOR GUIDANCE.
BY DAY-5/22ND-23RD...DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN SPECTRAL/ECMWF...AND AMONGST MREF MEMBERS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM REGARDING BOTH PHASE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF
MID-UPPER WAVE...AND RESULTANT POSITIONING/STRENGTH OF FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SOME PORTION OF
MID-SOUTH/DELTA/TN VALLEY REGIONS PROBABLY WILL NEED AT LEAST
15%/SLGT-RISK AREA EVENTUALLY...IT IS TOO SOON TO ASSIGN
UNCONDITIONAL 30% D5 LINE ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/18/2011
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