SWODY1
SPC AC 280558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2011
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND A SECOND TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SKIRTS
THE NRN CONUS...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT WILL BE A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW
MOVES EWD...A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS WILL DEEPEN...DRIFT NWD...AND OCCLUDE WITH TIME. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT -- EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN GA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WILL SWEEP ACROSS FL AND INTO THE ERN
ATLANTIC BY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM SERN GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON NEWD INVOF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
...SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
AS THE INLAND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS -- AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS SERN GA AND THE ERN
CAROLINAS AS ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...WITH MID-LEVEL
COOLING TO REMAIN WELL W OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...VERY MEAGER/SHALLOW CAPE IS PROGGED...WITH
MOST CONVECTION LIKELY TO PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY INLAND LIGHTNING.
DESPITE THE WEAK/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE QUITE STRONG -- SUPPORTIVE OF SIZEABLE
TORNADO THREAT IN AN OTHERWISE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN THIS
CASE HOWEVER...WHILE EVEN WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION...THE THREAT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
ONLY 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY -- TO COVER WHAT AT BEST SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A VERY ISOLATED/WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
..GOSS.. 11/28/2011
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