SWODY2
SPC AC 280646
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AT
12Z/TUE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY COMPACT AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS N/NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW...AN ARCING OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND.
...NC OUTER BANKS TO THE NORTHEAST...
A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS ERN NC
ALONG AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT. WITHIN A POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AND WITH STRONGER DCVA/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE LIKELY
REMAINING W/UPSTREAM OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THE PROBABILITY OF
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS APPEARS QUITE LOW AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
OUTER BANKS IN THE MORNING. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION OF LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER N DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS
REASONABLY CONSISTENT THAT STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ACCELERATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP RELEASE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
TSTMS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL BE VERY STRONG...MINIMAL DCAPE
SUGGESTS THAT DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO PENETRATE THE STABLE
LAYER AND MITIGATE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 11/28/2011
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