SWODY1
SPC AC 180416
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 PM CST THU NOV 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND...DAMPENING EARLY SAT AS
IT REACHES THE NRN/CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET
CENTERED ALONG THE 42ND PARALLEL WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN NOSING TOWARDS THE CO ROCKIES.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST PRIMARILY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE
WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN CA/NRN NV IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ZONE
OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPINGING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND A QUARTER-INCH AMIDST A
COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...BUOYANCY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION SHOULD
REMAIN MINIMAL.
...SRN FL...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL E/NELYS WILL ENVELOP THE SRN
PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW
VALUES /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THU SHOULD HOLD TSTM PROBABILITIES
TO AOB 10 PERCENT.
..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 11/18/2011
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