SWODY2
SPC AC 180544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU NOV 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEAMPLIFICATION OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ATTM...AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN ERN CONUS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING/DEAMPLIFYING
TROUGH...WHILE FALLS OCCUR OVER PAC NW IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SPEED MAX NOW EVIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF OFFSHORE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CYCLONICALLY DAY-1 ACROSS NRN CA AND NRN
GREAT BASIN. DURING DAY-2...THIS TROUGH SHOULD ASSUME POSITIVE TILT
AND EJECT ENEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING BROADLY CONFLUENT/SWLY 500-MB FLOW IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS REGION.
IN ADVANCE OF THAT TROUGH...SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE
DAY-1 OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. COMBINED LEE-SIDE/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
IS FCST OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB REGION BY ABOUT 19/12Z. BY
20/00Z...LOW SHOULD EJECT ENEWD ALONG FRONT TO NERN IA/SWRN WI
REGION...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND S-CENTRAL KS...ARCHING
WWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER NERN NM/SERN CO AREA. BY END OF
PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LH SWWD OVER OZARKS...SWRN OK...TO
E-CENTRAL/NERN NM.
...NE TX/SE OK TO SRN MO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND SW OF SFC
COLD FRONT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL WAA PLUME IS
FCST TO EXTEND FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER MI AND LH...TOO
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED FOR APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXCEPT IN ITS
SWRN LIMB. LLJ OVER OUTLOOK AREA IS FCST TO REACH 35-50 KT BY
20/06Z...WITH 850-MB DEW POINTS REACHING 10-12 DEG C. MRGL MOISTURE
RETURN AMIDST WAA SHOULD SUPPLY ENOUGH THETAE TO COUNTERBALANCE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING 300-500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE IN FCST
SOUNDINGS. SOME PARCELS SHOULD BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO
LFC...THOUGH BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEAR TOO WEAK TO PROJECT
AOA 5% SVR RISK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/18/2011
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