Saturday, November 5, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050503
SWODY2
SPC AC 050502

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...WILL MOVE FROM NRN CA
SEWD INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ AND AMPLIFY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH....A 50 TO 75 KT MID LEVEL
JET WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF CA/AZ NEWD THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BE
CLOSELY CO-LOCATED WITH MID LEVEL JET AND STRETCH FROM SWRN TX NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BE TOO STABLE AND DRY FOR CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF RICHER GULF
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION.

...NRN TX AND SRN OK...
SLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS FROM THE WRN GULF/SRN TX
NWD INTO NRN TX/SRN OK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THETA-E ADVECTION MIGHT
AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN LOW LEVEL JET TO
INCREASE OVER TEXAS. THIS INCREASED FORCING COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...FROM NEAR MAF TO WEST OF
OKC...SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NRN TX AND SRN OK. DESPITE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES...
SPEED SHEAR SHOULD YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 45 KT. THIS SHEAR AND
MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS WITH
HAIL.

..IMY.. 11/05/2011

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