SWODY3
SPC AC 040659
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WILL MOVE FROM NRN CA SEWD INTO SRN
UT/NRN AZ. AS A RESULT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND BEGIN
SHIFTING EWD...WITH A 60-80 KT MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN
STATES NEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL JET
MAX FROM WRN TX NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE SRN PLAINS AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE ERN STATES SHOULD RESTRICT RICHER GULF MOISTURE TO THIS
REGION.
...NRN TX AND SRN OK...
SLY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT
60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS FROM SRN TX INTO NRN TX AND OK DURING THE
PERIOD. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL INCREASE THE DIFFLUENCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER TEXAS. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NRN TX AND OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SHOW MUCAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM 40-50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL.
..IMY.. 11/04/2011
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