SWODY1
SPC AC 161956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2011
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK.
..GUYER.. 12/16/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
INITIAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY A
DOMINANT BRANCH OF WESTERLIES FROM WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER NRN BAJA WILL
RETROGRADE SWWD DURING THE D1 PERIOD...BECOMING DISPLACED FROM THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW REGIME PRESENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WITHIN
THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE
TRANSLATING EWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 17/12Z. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TIDEWATER SWWD TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER NERN/AL/NWRN GA AND INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SLOWLY ADVANCE EWD/SEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF LA
INTO THE SHELF WATERS OFF THE LA COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FORMING INVOF COLD FRONT. THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING
APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING A WEAK
LAPSE RATE...BUT MOIST AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY...
DECREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH TIME WILL TEND TO
LIMIT MORE ROBUST LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
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