Friday, December 16, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161725
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER AMPLITUDE
BELT OF WESTERLIES EVOLVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WITHIN A SOUTHERN SPLIT AND WELL REMOVED FROM
THE NORTHERN TIER WESTERLIES...A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN CA AND THE ADJACENT LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/AZ...
THE NORTHERN BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW MAY SHIFT A BIT
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH ONE OR MORE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMA EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY VICINITY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITHIN A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW TSTMS MAY
INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CA...BEFORE A LIMITED TSTM
POTENTIAL DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/PORTIONS OF AZ.

...ELSEWHERE...
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX WITHIN A WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCES OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /ELEVATED/
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT SUCH TSTM POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW /BELOW 10 PERCENT/.

..GUYER.. 12/16/2011

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