SWODY1
SPC AC 100651
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR/ERN LA INTO
MS...AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO AR
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
BY 00Z...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN MS AND NEAR THE AL BORDER
BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO SERN AR/NWRN MS BY
00Z...TREKKING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.
A LONG DURATION OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF
MS AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN AL. BY 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
SERN AR ACROSS SWRN MS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS LA...SRN MS AND AL.
...LOWER VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL LA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM SWRN MS INTO SERN LA
TUE MORNING...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THE MORNING.
WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
ALOFT...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF AT LEAST LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
THE SHEAR. WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THE DOMINANT MODE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS. AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO YIELD A WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT OVER SERN LA AND
CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS
SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS WRN/NWRN MS...FAR NERN LA...AND SERN AR.
HERE...FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST...AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL COMPENSATE FOR ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO
THREAT. NEWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH SURFACE AIR WILL BE STABLE. SOME HAIL THREAT
MAY REMAIN N OF THIS FRONT IN AN ELEVATED SENSE AS SHEAR ALLOWS
CORES TO PERSIST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE DUE TO
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WILL BE HIGH.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...A THIRD AREA OF SEVERE MAY MATERIALIZE OVER CNTRL AND ERN
AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS APPROACHING GA BY WED MORNING.
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL/SRN AL AFTER 6Z. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
STRONG...AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/10/2012
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